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- سيناريوهات التغير المناخي أو السيناريوهات الاقتصادية الاجتماعية هي إسقاطات حول انبعاثات الغازات الدفيئة مستقبلًا التي يستخدمها المحللون لتقييم التأثيرات المستقبلية للتغير المناخي. يتطلب وضع السيناريوهات تقديرات بخصوص المستويات السكانية في المستقبل، والنشاط الاقتصادي، وهيكلية الحوكمة، والقيم الاجتماعية، وأنماط التغير التكنولوجي. يمكن استخدام النمذجة الاقتصادية ونمذجة الطاقة (مثل نماذج وورلد 3 أو بولز) لتحليل وقياس آثار هذه العوامل. (ar)
- Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling (such as the World3 or the POLES models) can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers. Scientists can develop separate international, regional and national climate change scenarios. These scenarios are designed to help stakeholders understand what kinds of decisions will have meaningful effects on climate change mitigation or adaptation. Most countries developing adaptation plans or Nationally Determined Contributions will commission scenario studies in order to better understand the decisions available to them. International goals for mitigating climate change through international processes like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goal 13 ("Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts") are based on reviews of these scenarios. For example, the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C was released in 2018 order to reflect more up-to-date models of emissions, Nationally Determined Contributions, and impacts of climate change than its predecessor IPCC Fifth Assessment Report published in 2014 before the Paris Agreement. (en)
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- Projections for crop suitability to 2100 and 2500 under the moderate–high RCP6.0 emission scenario (en)
- Global mean near-surface air temperature and thermosteric sea-level rise anomalies relative to the 2000–2019 mean for RCP scenarios (en)
- Mean number of months per year where heat stress exceeds 38°C in present and future climates (en)
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- Projections for crop suitability to 2100 and 2500 under the moderate–high RCP6.0 emission scenario.webp (en)
- Global mean near-surface air temperature and thermosteric sea-level rise anomalies relative to the 2000–2019 mean for RCP climate change scenarios.webp (en)
- Mean number of months per year where heat stress exceeds 'very strong' levels in present and future climates.webp (en)
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- سيناريوهات التغير المناخي أو السيناريوهات الاقتصادية الاجتماعية هي إسقاطات حول انبعاثات الغازات الدفيئة مستقبلًا التي يستخدمها المحللون لتقييم التأثيرات المستقبلية للتغير المناخي. يتطلب وضع السيناريوهات تقديرات بخصوص المستويات السكانية في المستقبل، والنشاط الاقتصادي، وهيكلية الحوكمة، والقيم الاجتماعية، وأنماط التغير التكنولوجي. يمكن استخدام النمذجة الاقتصادية ونمذجة الطاقة (مثل نماذج وورلد 3 أو بولز) لتحليل وقياس آثار هذه العوامل. (ar)
- Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and pathways are created by scientists to survey any long term routes and explore the effectiveness of mitigation and helps us understand what the future may hold this will allow us to envision the future of human environment system. Producing scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns of technological change. Economic and energy modelling (such as the World3 or the POLES models) can be used to analyze and quantify the effects of such drivers. (en)
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- سيناريوهات التغير المناخي (ar)
- Climate change scenario (en)
- Cenários de alterações climáticas (pt)
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