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- Arbitrary inference is a classic tenet of cognitive therapy created by Aaron T. Beck in 1979. He defines the act of making an arbitrary inference as the process of drawing a conclusion without sufficient evidence, or without any evidence at all. In cases of depression, Beck found that individuals may be more prone to cognitive distortions, and make arbitrary inferences more often. These inferences could be general and/or in reference to the effectiveness of their medicine or treatment. Arbitrary inference is one of numerous specific cognitive distortions identified by Beck that can be commonly presented in people with anxiety, depression, and psychological impairments. Arbitrary inferences tend to derive from emotional disturbances one experienced and gave a distorted meaning. Most of the time that distorted meaning involves blaming the self. In the book Feeling Good: The New Mood Therapy a book by David D. Burns, a student of Aaron T. Beck, discusses more in detail the cognitive distortions. Burns explains arbitrary inference or "jumping to conclusions" with two of the most common examples of arbitrary inference: "Mind Reading" and "The Fortune Teller Error". When "Mind Reading" in arbitrary inference, one will believe other's are thinking negatively about them. When "Mind Reading," one is so convinced others are thinking negatively about them, they do not even bother confirming. This acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy when the person avoids or counterattacks the other person, and as a result creating a tension that would not exist had they not applied the inference. In "The Fortune Teller Error" one would imagine something failing or bad happening, and suddenly they are convinced it will happen, despite the irrationality of it. Similarly to "Mind Reading" it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. According to Beck (1967), a person goes through life with detrimental schemas and pessimistic point of view, they reinforce their harmful thoughts. People's prior beliefs also tend to reinforce that way of thinking, like when they focus on information that is in alignment with their belief and disregard equally relevant facts that do not align with their schemas. These schemas that dominate the cognitive processes consist of 1) Feeling inadequate and faulty, 2) Believing all actions and experiences will lead to failure, and 3) The future is discouraging. Over time, these thought processes become automatic. Without time to reflect on the cognitive process, one believes that their illogical reasoning to their conclusion is valid. Attributing the negative and distorted meaning of an event results in latent schemas that are later activated by events and influence how information from the event is processed. When a person creates an arbitrary inference it intervenes and is seen as effective response to the event. In a 2003 study attempting to understand cognitive processes like arbitrary inference on depression, researchers compared 42 patients with chronic depression, 27 patients with major depressive disorder (non-chronic), and 24 patients that had never been psychiatrically ill before. The study included the Attributional Style Questionnaire, a ruminative response style questionnaire, the Schema Questionnaire, and the Dysfunctional Attitude Scale. While studies showed that both of the depressed groups were significantly elevated in every cognitive measure compared to the control group, the depressed group scored higher in the attributional style. Moreover, Beck has also studied the relationships between cognitive distortions and idiosyncrasies, where the inferences made could be based more on one's own personality rather than on a depressive state of emotions. This research shows that while common in those with depression, inferences can be made in any number of cases. The main issue covered, however, is how these can negatively affect someone's personal schema when coupled with the already negative emotions brought about by anxiety or depression. Cognitive Therapy for Arbitrary Inference Aaron T. Becks approach to helping people with arbitrary inference is to ask them questions about the inference. Beck Leads the people to think about the rationality of the automatic thoughts that happen when one is using arbitrary inference as an explanation to an event. By studying what people thought of themselves when they were depressed, Beck and his associates were able to develop this form of therapy to offer a change in self-opinion. Moreover, different approaches have also been taken in cognitive therapy for these inferences, such as Cognitive Bias Modification (CBM). This involves modification of Beck's original theory on depression, coming up with positive views and feelings for situations, as opposed to negative ones. The point of the study was to show that simply thinking positively about something allows one to correctly attribute a situation, rather than ‘arbitrarily’ drawing false conclusions. (en)
- Een arbitraire gevolgtrekking of willekeurige gevolgtrekking is een denkfout waarbij iemand een conclusie trekt die niet door feiten wordt geschraagd. (nl)
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