About: Lee–Carter model

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The Lee–Carter model is a numerical algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically by time, usually with ages in columns and years in rows. The output is a forecasted matrix of mortality rates in the same format as the input. The model uses singular value decomposition (SVD) to find: Many researchers adjust the vector by fitting it to empirical life expectancies for each year, using the and generated with SVD. When adjusted using this approach, changes to are usually small.

Attributes	Values
rdf:type	software
rdfs:label	Lee–Carter model (en)
rdfs:comment	The Lee–Carter model is a numerical algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically by time, usually with ages in columns and years in rows. The output is a forecasted matrix of mortality rates in the same format as the input. The model uses singular value decomposition (SVD) to find: Many researchers adjust the vector by fitting it to empirical life expectancies for each year, using the and generated with SVD. When adjusted using this approach, changes to are usually small. (en)
dcterms:subject	Actuarial science Population Population ecology
Wikipage page ID	28975424 (xsd:integer)
Wikipage revision ID	1105941894 (xsd:integer)
Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage	Time series Mortality rates Rob J. Hyndman Life table Actuarial science Matlab Google Monte Carlo Method Life expectancy Logarithms Singular value decomposition Stata Population Population ecology Forecasting Historical demography Dimension reduction Univariate Social Security Administration Random walk Standard error Confidence intervals Mortality forecasting Page rank Census Bureau Centering dbr:Ronald_D._Lee ARIMA dbr:Inverse_projection
Link from a Wikipage to an external page	http://data.princeton.edu/eco572/LeeCarter.html http://www.ceda.berkeley.edu/People/rlee.html https://robjhyndman.com/software/ https://github.com/mrockinger/Matlab-Longevity-Toolbox/ https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/StMoMo/vignettes/StMoMoVignette.pdf http://lcfit.demog.berkeley.edu
sameAs	Lee–Carter model Lee–Carter model Lee–Carter model
dbp:wikiPageUsesTemplate	dbt:Reflist dbt:Short_description dbt:Use_mdy_dates
has abstract	The Lee–Carter model is a numerical algorithm used in mortality forecasting and life expectancy forecasting. The input to the model is a matrix of age specific mortality rates ordered monotonically by time, usually with ages in columns and years in rows. The output is a forecasted matrix of mortality rates in the same format as the input. The model uses singular value decomposition (SVD) to find: * A univariate time series vector that captures 80–90% of the mortality trend (here the subscript refers to time), * A vector that describes the relative mortality at each age (here the subscript refers to age), and * A scaling constant (referred to here as but unnamed in the literature). Surprisingly, is usually linear, implying that gains to life expectancy are fairly constant year after year in most populations. Prior to computing SVD, age specific mortality rates are first transformed into , by taking their logarithms, and then centering them by subtracting their age-specific means over time. The age-specific mean over time is denoted by . The subscript refers to the fact that spans both age and time. Many researchers adjust the vector by fitting it to empirical life expectancies for each year, using the and generated with SVD. When adjusted using this approach, changes to are usually small. To forecast mortality, (either adjusted or not) is projected into future years using an ARIMA model. The corresponding forecasted is recovered by multiplying by and the first diagonal element of S (when ). The actual mortality rates are recovered by taking exponentials of this vector. Because of the linearity of , it is generally modeled as a random walk with trend. Life expectancy and other life table measures can be calculated from this forecasted matrix after adding back the means and taking exponentials to yield regular mortality rates. In most implementations, confidence intervals for the forecasts are generated by simulating multiple mortality forecasts using Monte Carlo Methods. A band of mortality between 5% and 95% percentiles of the simulated results is considered to be a valid forecast. These simulations are done by extending into the future using randomization based on the standard error of derived from the input data. (en)
gold:hypernym	Algorithm
prov:wasDerivedFrom	wikipedia-en:Lee–Carter_model?oldid=1105941894&ns=0
page length (characters) of wiki page	8438 (xsd:nonNegativeInteger)
foaf:isPrimaryTopicOf	wikipedia-en:Lee–Carter_model
is Link from a Wikipage to another Wikipage of	Demography Life expectancy Lee Carter Lee-Carter Model Lee-Carter model Lee Carter Model Lee carter method
is Wikipage redirect of	Lee-Carter Model Lee-Carter model Lee Carter Model Lee carter method
is foaf:primaryTopic of	wikipedia-en:Lee–Carter_model

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