Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debt-burdened economies. The paper argues that when "gross external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP", a country's annual growth declined by two percent, and "for levels of external debt in excess of 90 percent" GDP growth was "roughly cut in half." Appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the evidence for the 90%-debt threshold hypothesis provided support for pro-austerity policies.
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| - Growth in a Time of Debt (in italiano: La crescita ai tempi del debito, conosciuto anche come Reinhart-Rogoff, dal nome dei suoi autori, talvolta abbreviato in RR 2010) è un controverso lavoro scientifico pubblicato nel 2010 sulla , i cui autori sono due noti economisti dell'Università di Harvard, Carmen Reinhart e Kenneth Rogoff. L'articolo è stato ripreso e citato di frequente da politici, commentatori, e attivisti, in dibattiti politici vertenti sull'opportunità e l'efficacia di politiche fiscali ed economiche di austerity e rigore quando queste vengono applicate in contesti di economie gravate da forte incidenza del debito pubblico sul Prodotto interno lordo. (it)
- Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debt-burdened economies. The paper argues that when "gross external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP", a country's annual growth declined by two percent, and "for levels of external debt in excess of 90 percent" GDP growth was "roughly cut in half." Appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the evidence for the 90%-debt threshold hypothesis provided support for pro-austerity policies. (en)
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| - Growth in a Time of Debt, also known by its authors' names as Reinhart–Rogoff, is an economics paper by American economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff published in a non peer-reviewed issue of the American Economic Review in 2010. Politicians, commentators, and activists widely cited the paper in political debates over the effectiveness of austerity in fiscal policy for debt-burdened economies. The paper argues that when "gross external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP", a country's annual growth declined by two percent, and "for levels of external debt in excess of 90 percent" GDP growth was "roughly cut in half." Appearing in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the evidence for the 90%-debt threshold hypothesis provided support for pro-austerity policies. In 2013, academic critics accused Reinhart and Rogoff of employing methodology that suffered from 3 major errors; they asserted that the underlying data did not support the authors' conclusions. These critics held that the Reinhart–Rogoff paper had led to unjustified adoption of austerity policies for countries with various levels of public debt. Further papers by Rogoff and Reinhart,and the International Monetary Fund, which were not found to contain similar errors, reached conclusions similar to the initial paper, though with much lower impact on GDP growth. The threshold hypothesis retains adherents as well as critics, who suggest that the thresholds in the relation between public debt and economic growth lack robustness, so a consensus on the 90%-threshold hypothesis in the relation between public debt and economic growth has been elusive. A recent meta-analysis (although not published yet) provides evidence there is no threshold above which a higher debt to GDP ratio reduces GDP. (en)
- Growth in a Time of Debt (in italiano: La crescita ai tempi del debito, conosciuto anche come Reinhart-Rogoff, dal nome dei suoi autori, talvolta abbreviato in RR 2010) è un controverso lavoro scientifico pubblicato nel 2010 sulla , i cui autori sono due noti economisti dell'Università di Harvard, Carmen Reinhart e Kenneth Rogoff. L'articolo è stato ripreso e citato di frequente da politici, commentatori, e attivisti, in dibattiti politici vertenti sull'opportunità e l'efficacia di politiche fiscali ed economiche di austerity e rigore quando queste vengono applicate in contesti di economie gravate da forte incidenza del debito pubblico sul Prodotto interno lordo. (it)
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