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An ARkStorm (for "atmospheric river 1,000 [k] storm") is a "megastorm" scenario proposed based on repeated historical occurrences, first developed and published by the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). (The "1000" [k] in the name is because the scenario was originally projected as a 1-in-1000-year event). Climate change is expected to increase the risk of severe flooding from an ARkstorm with runoff being 200 to 400% above historical values because of a decrease in the portion of precipitation as snow.

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  • Arkstorm (de)
  • ARkStorm (en)
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  • An ARkStorm (for "atmospheric river 1,000 [k] storm") is a "megastorm" scenario proposed based on repeated historical occurrences, first developed and published by the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). (The "1000" [k] in the name is because the scenario was originally projected as a 1-in-1000-year event). Climate change is expected to increase the risk of severe flooding from an ARkstorm with runoff being 200 to 400% above historical values because of a decrease in the portion of precipitation as snow. (en)
  • Ein Arkstorm, korrekter ARkStorm für Atmospheric River kilo Storm (engl. Atmosphärischer Fluss 1000 Sturm) ist die Bezeichnung für ein Wetterszenario des United States Geological Survey, das schwere Winterstürme mit heftigen Regenfällen in Kalifornien untersucht. Das Szenario wurde zur Prüfung der Katastrophenschutzmaßnahmen erstellt und ist ein Glied in einer Kette solcher Szenarien möglicher Naturkatastrophen wie Erdbeben (ShakeOut), Tsunamis, Waldbränden, Erdrutschen und Küstenerosion. (de)
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  • http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FilePath/California_ARkStorm_Flood_Areas.jpg
  • http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Special:FilePath/Coverthb.png
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  • An ARkStorm (for "atmospheric river 1,000 [k] storm") is a "megastorm" scenario proposed based on repeated historical occurrences, first developed and published by the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). (The "1000" [k] in the name is because the scenario was originally projected as a 1-in-1000-year event). The scenario describes an extreme storm that devastates much of California, causing up to $725 billion in losses (mostly due to flooding), and affects a quarter of California's homes. The event would be similar to the exceptionally intense California storms that occurred between December 1861 and January 1862. Those storms dumped nearly 10 feet (3,000 mm) of rain in parts of California over a period of 43 days. USGS sediment research in the San Francisco Bay Area, , Sacramento Valley, and the Klamath Mountain region found that "megastorms" similar to the ARkStorm scenario have occurred in the following years: 212, 440, 603, 1029, c. 1300, 1418, 1605, 1750, 1810, and, most recently, 1861–62. Based on the intervals of These known occurrences, ranging from 51 to 426 years, scientists have concluded that the events have a mean return period of 150–200 years or a have a 1.0 to 0.5% annual likelihood. Geologic evidence indicates that several of the previous events were more intense than the one in 1861–62, particularly those in 440, 1418, 1605, and 1750, each of which deposited a layer of silt in the Santa Barbara Basin more than one inch (2.5 cm) thick. The largest event was the one in 1605, which left a layer of silt two inches (5 cm) thick, indicating that this flood was at least 50% more powerful than any of the others recorded. Climate change is expected to increase the risk of severe flooding from an ARkstorm with runoff being 200 to 400% above historical values because of a decrease in the portion of precipitation as snow. (en)
  • Ein Arkstorm, korrekter ARkStorm für Atmospheric River kilo Storm (engl. Atmosphärischer Fluss 1000 Sturm) ist die Bezeichnung für ein Wetterszenario des United States Geological Survey, das schwere Winterstürme mit heftigen Regenfällen in Kalifornien untersucht. Das Szenario wurde zur Prüfung der Katastrophenschutzmaßnahmen erstellt und ist ein Glied in einer Kette solcher Szenarien möglicher Naturkatastrophen wie Erdbeben (ShakeOut), Tsunamis, Waldbränden, Erdrutschen und Küstenerosion. Grundlage für das Phänomen sind ähnliche Regenfälle wie jene, die am Weihnachtsabend 1861 begannen und 45 Tage ununterbrochenen Regen brachten (Große Flut von 1862). Weite Teile des Central Valley wurden damals unpassierbar und Los Angeles wurde zu einem schlammigen See. Untersuchungen von Sedimenten der Flussterrassen großer Flüsse in Kalifornien zeigen jedoch, dass die Große Flut von 1862 noch nicht einmal die schwerste in der Geschichte Kaliforniens war. Im Arkstorm-Szenario wurden die Messdaten von zwei als „Ananasexpress“ bezeichneten Wetterlagen im Januar 1969 und Februar 1986 zusammengeführt und mittels Computern simuliert. Das berechnete Ergebnis waren schwere Regenfälle für 23 Tage. Das Szenario erzeugt also nicht die schlimmste vorstellbare Ausprägung, ist also kein Worst-Case-Szenario. Für Kalifornien wird die Häufigkeit von Arkstorms auf einen Vorfall in 100 bis 200 Jahren geschätzt. (de)
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