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Subject Item: dbr:Technology_forecasting
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rdfs:label: Vigilância tecnológica Vigilancia tecnológica 科技預測 Technology forecasting Technologiefrüherkennung Vigilància tecnològica 기술예측
rdfs:comment: Technologiefrüherkennung (TF) ist Teil des strategischen Innovations- und Technologiemanagements. Ihr Ziel ist es, aussichtsreiche Technologieansätze oder -trends zu ermitteln, ihr Entwicklungspotential deutlich zu machen und die Markteinführung von neuen Produkten durch geeignete Maßnahmen vorzubereiten. Im Englischen (und oft auch im Deutschen) wird die Technologiefrüherkennung auch mit dem Ausdruck „Technology Intelligence“ bezeichnet. La vigilancia tecnológica es un proceso organizado, selectivo y permanente, de captar información del exterior y de la propia organización sobre ciencia y tecnología, seleccionarla, analizarla, difundirla y comunicarla, para convertirla en conocimiento para tomar decisiones con menor riesgo y poder anticiparse a los cambios. Lo cual corresponde a la definición formal, según viene recogida en el texto de la norma UNE 166006:2011 Gestión de la I+D+i (Sistema de vigilancia tecnológica). Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters al 기술예측(技術豫測 ; technological forecasting)이란 기술의 장래 모습을 양적, 질적, 내용적으로 예측하는 것을 말한다. 여기서 기술이란 과학과 밀접하게 결합된 기술 즉 과학기술을 의미하며, 예측은 장래 문제에 관해서 비교적 고도의 신뢰수준에 근거를 둔 확률적 기술로 정의한다. 렌츠는 기계의 장래의 수량치와 성능을 측정하는 것이라 정의하고 이를 기계라는 한정된 좁은 범위에 국한시켰다. 얀쉬는 장래의 기술이전에 관하여 예측하는 것이라 정의하고, 기술을 물질, 생명 및 행동과학의 내용을 의식적으로 응용하는 넓은 영역, 즉 의학, 농업, 경영, 하드웨어, 소프트웨어에까지 확대하고 있다. 기술이전은 얀쉬의 정의를 따르면 공간내에서의 이전 과정을 의미하며, 발명 · 발견에서 개발까지의 수직단계와 응용에서 마케팅, 지식 보급 까지의 수평단계로 구성된다고 말하고 있다. 이 문서에는 다음커뮤니케이션(현 카카오)에서 GFDL 또는 CC-SA 라이선스로 배포한 글로벌 세계대백과사전의 내용을 기초로 작성된 글이 포함되어 있습니다. A vigilância tecnológica é um processo organizado, selectivo e permanente, de captar informação do exterior e da própria organização sobre ciência e tecnologia, seleccionar, analisar, e comunicar, para convertê-la em conhecimento para tomar decisões com menor risco e poder antecipar-se às mudanças. Esta é uma definição formal, segundo o texto da norma UNE 166006:2011 Gestão da I+D+i (Sistema de Vigilância Tecnológica). 科技預測是指人類對未來科技發展的估計与猜测。這些估計通常都是按當時的科技發展作出推算。然而，由於科技的發展進度難以作出準確的估計，因此很多時候都很難完全準確，有時更會出現偏差。但是科技预测表明了人们对未来科技发展的美好向往，推动了科学技术的巨大发展。 La vigilància tecnològica és un procés sistemàtic de cerca, selecció, anàlisi, comunicació i difusió d'informació sobre ciència i tecnologia per tal de donar suport a la presa de decisions en matèria d'estratègia tecnològica. La vigilància tecnològica contribueix a aportar idees utilitzables en projectes d'R+D+I. També és de gran utilitat per a orientar les decisions d'adquisició i abandonament de tecnologies, reduint els riscos inherents en les mateixes i facilitant l'anticipació als canvis.
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dbo:abstract: A vigilância tecnológica é um processo organizado, selectivo e permanente, de captar informação do exterior e da própria organização sobre ciência e tecnologia, seleccionar, analisar, e comunicar, para convertê-la em conhecimento para tomar decisões com menor risco e poder antecipar-se às mudanças. Esta é uma definição formal, segundo o texto da norma UNE 166006:2011 Gestão da I+D+i (Sistema de Vigilância Tecnológica). 기술예측(技術豫測 ; technological forecasting)이란 기술의 장래 모습을 양적, 질적, 내용적으로 예측하는 것을 말한다. 여기서 기술이란 과학과 밀접하게 결합된 기술 즉 과학기술을 의미하며, 예측은 장래 문제에 관해서 비교적 고도의 신뢰수준에 근거를 둔 확률적 기술로 정의한다. 렌츠는 기계의 장래의 수량치와 성능을 측정하는 것이라 정의하고 이를 기계라는 한정된 좁은 범위에 국한시켰다. 얀쉬는 장래의 기술이전에 관하여 예측하는 것이라 정의하고, 기술을 물질, 생명 및 행동과학의 내용을 의식적으로 응용하는 넓은 영역, 즉 의학, 농업, 경영, 하드웨어, 소프트웨어에까지 확대하고 있다. 기술이전은 얀쉬의 정의를 따르면 공간내에서의 이전 과정을 의미하며, 발명 · 발견에서 개발까지의 수직단계와 응용에서 마케팅, 지식 보급 까지의 수평단계로 구성된다고 말하고 있다. 이 문서에는 다음커뮤니케이션(현 카카오)에서 GFDL 또는 CC-SA 라이선스로 배포한 글로벌 세계대백과사전의 내용을 기초로 작성된 글이 포함되어 있습니다. 科技預測是指人類對未來科技發展的估計与猜测。這些估計通常都是按當時的科技發展作出推算。然而，由於科技的發展進度難以作出準確的估計，因此很多時候都很難完全準確，有時更會出現偏差。但是科技预测表明了人们对未来科技发展的美好向往，推动了科学技术的巨大发展。 La vigilància tecnològica és un procés sistemàtic de cerca, selecció, anàlisi, comunicació i difusió d'informació sobre ciència i tecnologia per tal de donar suport a la presa de decisions en matèria d'estratègia tecnològica. La vigilància tecnològica contribueix a aportar idees utilitzables en projectes d'R+D+I. També és de gran utilitat per a orientar les decisions d'adquisició i abandonament de tecnologies, reduint els riscos inherents en les mateixes i facilitant l'anticipació als canvis. Technologiefrüherkennung (TF) ist Teil des strategischen Innovations- und Technologiemanagements. Ihr Ziel ist es, aussichtsreiche Technologieansätze oder -trends zu ermitteln, ihr Entwicklungspotential deutlich zu machen und die Markteinführung von neuen Produkten durch geeignete Maßnahmen vorzubereiten. Im Englischen (und oft auch im Deutschen) wird die Technologiefrüherkennung auch mit dem Ausdruck „Technology Intelligence“ bezeichnet. Technology forecasting attempts to predict the future characteristics of useful technological machines, procedures or techniques. Researchers create technology forecasts based on past experience and current technological developments. Like other forecasts, technology forecasting can be helpful for both public and private organizations to make smart decisions. By analyzing future opportunities and threats, the forecaster can improve decisions in order to achieve maximum benefits. Today, most countries are experiencing huge social and economic changes, which heavily rely on technology development. By analyzing these changes, government and economic institutions could make plans for future developments. However, not all of historical data can be used for technology forecasting, forecasters also need to adopt advanced technology and quantitative modeling from experts’ researches and conclusions. La vigilancia tecnológica es un proceso organizado, selectivo y permanente, de captar información del exterior y de la propia organización sobre ciencia y tecnología, seleccionarla, analizarla, difundirla y comunicarla, para convertirla en conocimiento para tomar decisiones con menor riesgo y poder anticiparse a los cambios. Lo cual corresponde a la definición formal, según viene recogida en el texto de la norma UNE 166006:2011 Gestión de la I+D+i (Sistema de vigilancia tecnológica).
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