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- الانتخابات الحاسمة هي انتخابات يحدث فيها تحول في التحالف الحزبي مؤشرة على نمط منقح على نحو جذري من العلاقات ضمن نظام الحزب الواحد. ومن الصعب تحديد الانتخابات الحاسمة عندما تجري وتعطي هذه الصفة في وقت لاحق عندما يمكن ملاحظة النمط الأطول أمدا من العلاقات الحزبية المتغيرة. (ar)
- A political realignment, often called a critical election, critical realignment, or realigning election, in the academic fields of political science and political history, is a set of sharp changes in party ideology, issues, party leaders, regional and demographic bases of power of political parties, and the structure or rules of the political system, such as voter eligibility or financing. The changes result in a new political power structure that lasts for decades, replacing an older dominant coalition. Scholars frequently invoke the concept in American elections and occasionally those of other countries. American examples include the 1896 United States presidential election, when the issues of the American Civil War political system were replaced with those of the Populist and Progressive Era, and the 1932 United States presidential election, when the Populist and Progressive Eras were replaced by the New Deal-era issues of New Deal liberalism and modern conservatism. Realigning elections typically separate (what are known in the field of comparative politics as) party systems—with 1828, for example, separating the First Party System and the Second Party System in the US. It is generally accepted that the United States has had five distinct party systems, each featuring two major parties attracting a consistent political coalition and following a consistent party ideology, separated by four realignments. Political realignments can be sudden (1–4 years) or can take place more gradually (5–20 years). Most often, however, particularly in V. O. Key Jr.'s (1955) original hypothesis, it is a single "critical election" that marks a realignment. By contrast, a gradual process is called a secular realignment. Political scientists and historians often disagree about which elections are realignments and what defines a realignment, and even whether realignments occur. The terms themselves are somewhat arbitrary, however, and usage among political scientists and historians does vary. In the US, Walter Dean Burnham argued for a 30–38 year "cycle" of realignments. Many of the elections often included in the Burnham 38-year cycle are considered "realigning" for different reasons. Other political scientists and quantitative elections analysts reject realignment theory altogether, arguing that there are no long-term patterns. Political scientist David R. Mayhew states, "Electoral politics is to an important degree just one thing after another ... Elections and their underlying causes are not usefully sortable into generation-long spans ... It is a Rip Van Winkle view of democracy that voters come awake only once in a generation ... It is too slippery, too binary, too apocalyptic, and it has come to be too much of a dead end." Sean Trende, senior elections analyst at RealClearPolitics, who argues against realignment theory and the "emerging Democratic majority" thesis proposed by journalist John Judis and political scientist Ruy Teixeira in his 2012 book The Lost Majority states, "Almost none of the theories propounded by realignment theorists has endured the test of time... It turns out that finding a 'realigning' election is a lot like finding an image of Jesus in a grilled-cheese sandwich – if you stare long enough and hard enough, you will eventually find what you are looking for." In August 2013, Trende observed that U.S. presidential election results from 1880 through 2012 form a 0.96 correlation with the expected sets of outcomes (i.e. events) in the binomial distribution of a fair coin flip experiment. In May 2015, statistician and FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver argued against a blue wall Electoral College advantage for the Democratic Party in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and in post-election analysis, Silver cited Trende in noting that "there are few if any permanent majorities" and both Silver and Trende argued that the "emerging Democratic majority" thesis led most news coverage and commentary preceding the election to overstate Hillary Clinton's chances of being elected. (en)
- 政党重组（英語：party realignment）是政治学中的术语，意指民主国家中发生的重大格局性变化。此词通常被专门应用于美国选举，但在形容其他国家政治时也可适用。政党重组通常意味着一国政党制度的彻底改变，比如原有的或政党联盟被击败并瓦解，被新崛起的原取代。一个例子就是美国1828年大选后从到的转换——自美国建国后便占据政治舞台相互抗争的联邦党和民主共和党彻底灭亡，由新的民主党和辉格党为主要党派的第二政党制开始。直到美国内战又再次将这一制度打破，因废奴而崛起的共和党最终取代辉格党成为了与民主党抗争的主要政党，开启了美国。政党重组通常都伴随重大国家危机出现，由人民对现有多数党的不满促成，比如1929年的经济大萧条就终结了美国共和党自南北内战后对全国（除原南方邦联州）近70年的多数派统治（即），富兰克林·罗斯福领导的新政联盟和其背后的民主党压过了共和党，再次成为了美国的多数党，也随即开始。 (zh)
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- الانتخابات الحاسمة هي انتخابات يحدث فيها تحول في التحالف الحزبي مؤشرة على نمط منقح على نحو جذري من العلاقات ضمن نظام الحزب الواحد. ومن الصعب تحديد الانتخابات الحاسمة عندما تجري وتعطي هذه الصفة في وقت لاحق عندما يمكن ملاحظة النمط الأطول أمدا من العلاقات الحزبية المتغيرة. (ar)
- 政党重组（英語：party realignment）是政治学中的术语，意指民主国家中发生的重大格局性变化。此词通常被专门应用于美国选举，但在形容其他国家政治时也可适用。政党重组通常意味着一国政党制度的彻底改变，比如原有的或政党联盟被击败并瓦解，被新崛起的原取代。一个例子就是美国1828年大选后从到的转换——自美国建国后便占据政治舞台相互抗争的联邦党和民主共和党彻底灭亡，由新的民主党和辉格党为主要党派的第二政党制开始。直到美国内战又再次将这一制度打破，因废奴而崛起的共和党最终取代辉格党成为了与民主党抗争的主要政党，开启了美国。政党重组通常都伴随重大国家危机出现，由人民对现有多数党的不满促成，比如1929年的经济大萧条就终结了美国共和党自南北内战后对全国（除原南方邦联州）近70年的多数派统治（即），富兰克林·罗斯福领导的新政联盟和其背后的民主党压过了共和党，再次成为了美国的多数党，也随即开始。 (zh)
- A political realignment, often called a critical election, critical realignment, or realigning election, in the academic fields of political science and political history, is a set of sharp changes in party ideology, issues, party leaders, regional and demographic bases of power of political parties, and the structure or rules of the political system, such as voter eligibility or financing. The changes result in a new political power structure that lasts for decades, replacing an older dominant coalition. Scholars frequently invoke the concept in American elections and occasionally those of other countries. American examples include the 1896 United States presidential election, when the issues of the American Civil War political system were replaced with those of the Populist and Progressi (en)
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