The Gerschenkron effect, developed by Alexander Gerschenkron, claims that changing the base year for an index determines the growth rate of the index. This effect is applicable only to aggregation method using reference price structure (meaning, each country’s quantities are valued by uniform set of prices to obtain volume) or reference volume structure (meaning, obtaining Purchasing power parity via valuation of uniform set of quantities by each country’s price). However, if production is measured by "real" tearms, this effect does not exist. This description is from the OECD website:
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| - Gerschenkron effect (en)
- Effet Gerschenkron (fr)
- Efekt Gerschenkrona (pl)
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| - Efekt Gerschenkrona to negatywna korelacja między wskaźnikami określającymi poziom produkcji i relatywnych cen występująca w trakcie zmian strukturalnych w gospodarce. Wynika ona z różnicy konstrukcji indeksów Laspeyresa i (inny rok bazowy w indeksie). Efekt ten odkrył Alexander Gerschenkron analizując radzieckie statystyki dotyczące produkcji przemysłowej (podczas gdy oficjalne statystyki radzieckie wskazywały na 14-krotny wzrost produkcji przemysłowej w latach 1927/1928-1937, według obliczeń Gerschenkrona wzrost ten był tylko 5-krotny). (pl)
- The Gerschenkron effect, developed by Alexander Gerschenkron, claims that changing the base year for an index determines the growth rate of the index. This effect is applicable only to aggregation method using reference price structure (meaning, each country’s quantities are valued by uniform set of prices to obtain volume) or reference volume structure (meaning, obtaining Purchasing power parity via valuation of uniform set of quantities by each country’s price). However, if production is measured by "real" tearms, this effect does not exist. This description is from the OECD website: (en)
- L'effet Gerschenkron est un effet étudié par l'économiste américain Alexander Gerschenkron et qui démontre comment le changement de l'année de base ou du volume de référence d'un indice économique détermine le taux de croissance de cet indice. Gerschenkron l'a élaboré à la suite de ses études nombreuses sur les statistiques de l'Union soviétique et leur manipulation. Il est ainsi défini dans les publications de l'OCDE : Il est un des biais connus des statisticiens dans les analyses comparatives, et en particulier dans les analyses de prix en parité de pouvoir d'achat. (fr)
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| - The Gerschenkron effect, developed by Alexander Gerschenkron, claims that changing the base year for an index determines the growth rate of the index. This effect is applicable only to aggregation method using reference price structure (meaning, each country’s quantities are valued by uniform set of prices to obtain volume) or reference volume structure (meaning, obtaining Purchasing power parity via valuation of uniform set of quantities by each country’s price). However, if production is measured by "real" tearms, this effect does not exist. This description is from the OECD website: The Gerschenkron effect can arise with aggregation methods that use either a reference price structure or a reference volume structure to compare countries. For methods employing a reference price structure, a country's share of total GDP (that is the total for the group of countries being compared) will rise as the reference price structure becomes less characteristic of its own price structure. For methods employing a reference volume structure, a country's share of total GDP will fall as the reference volume structure becomes less characteristic of its own volume structure. The Gerschenkron effect arises because of the negative correlation between prices and volumes. In other words, expenditure patterns change in response to changes in relative prices because consumers switch their expenditure towards relatively cheap products. Simply, put the “Gerschenkron effect” measures the difference between Paasche and Laspeyres indices. That means that “early-weighted” aggregate will grow faster that “late-weighted.” Negative correlation is due to relatively rapid technical progress and falling relative price benefit from cost-reducing substitution. Or it can be vice versa; slow technical progress, increasing relative price suffer from cost-reducing substitution. In other words, this effect arises when activities whose relative prices are falling tend to increase their volume shares of total production and vice versa. Which is exactly what happened during industrial revolution when manufacturing expanded is produced volume. After revision by Jonas and Sardy in 1970, properties of the Gerschenkron effect were further developed. In addition to originally stated of base-year indices and reasoning behind that, it was shown that the movement in relative quantities is usually larger than the movement in relative prices and that the weighted correlation of those effects decreases over time with further development. (en)
- L'effet Gerschenkron est un effet étudié par l'économiste américain Alexander Gerschenkron et qui démontre comment le changement de l'année de base ou du volume de référence d'un indice économique détermine le taux de croissance de cet indice. Gerschenkron l'a élaboré à la suite de ses études nombreuses sur les statistiques de l'Union soviétique et leur manipulation. Il est ainsi défini dans les publications de l'OCDE : « The Gerschenkron effect can arise with aggregation methods that use either a reference price structure or a reference volume structure to compare countries. For methods employing a reference price structure, a country's share of total GDP (that is the total for the group of countries being compared) will rise as the reference price structure becomes less characteristic of its own price structure. For methods employing a reference volume structure, a country's share of total GDP will fall as the reference volume structure becomes less characteristic of its own volume structure. The Gerschenkron effect arises because of the negative correlation between prices and volumes. In other words, expenditure patterns change in response to changes in relative prices because consumers switch their expenditure towards relatively cheap products. »« L'effet Gerschrenkron se manifeste dans les méthodes qui agrègent les données en utilisant pour référence une unique structure de prix, ou une unique structure de volume, pour comparer deux pays. Plus les États diffèrent dans leur développement, plus le biais est important. En effet, les consommateurs d'un pays pauvre ne se tourneront pas vers les mêmes biens que les consommateurs des pays riches pour satisfaire des besoins similaires. » Il est un des biais connus des statisticiens dans les analyses comparatives, et en particulier dans les analyses de prix en parité de pouvoir d'achat. (fr)
- Efekt Gerschenkrona to negatywna korelacja między wskaźnikami określającymi poziom produkcji i relatywnych cen występująca w trakcie zmian strukturalnych w gospodarce. Wynika ona z różnicy konstrukcji indeksów Laspeyresa i (inny rok bazowy w indeksie). Efekt ten odkrył Alexander Gerschenkron analizując radzieckie statystyki dotyczące produkcji przemysłowej (podczas gdy oficjalne statystyki radzieckie wskazywały na 14-krotny wzrost produkcji przemysłowej w latach 1927/1928-1937, według obliczeń Gerschenkrona wzrost ten był tylko 5-krotny). (pl)
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